Sunday, April 30, 2006
Three posts in a day. Something is definitely wrong! Yes, there is a bad beat rant (of sorts) ahead...
Just had to get the frustration off my chest, by means other than the chat box - don't tap on the fishtank, etc.
I had a good afternoon. A very short session squeezed in, with a very high BB win rate.
No spectacular play - just a few decent hands holding up.
Tonight I gave it all back - and then some - in one of those sessions where nothing goes right.
Of all the hands I lost, I started out behind in the grand total of two - one where I could not get a usually very tight player to put down 66 against my AK on a board laden with overcards, and one where I caught top pair and a straight draw from the BB against a guy who limped AA pre-flop. Yes, really, and of course I missed my draw.
Add to that a hotch potch of Ace-rags catching against big pairs, JJ losing to QJ, sets losing to rivered flushes etc. and it's a classic snapshot of the low limit tables.
This isn't a complaint. I need these guys to keep playing this way.
It's just so frustrating when so many bad calls turn out good in such a short space of time.
What makes it doubly frustrating is that quite often in these cases limit Hold Em starts to feel a bit like Omaha, in that the pots are so big, there's often a justifiable redraw even when I am 100% sure I am behind.
If they keep hitting their lucky turn card, why can't I hit my lucky river?
Yes, I know. Variance dear boy, variance.
For example, a big pot, raised pre-flop by myself with KJs. I don't catch my flush but a flop with two jacks and a ten is awfully nice.
When I bet and get called in multiple positions, bet again and get callers and a raise on a turned 7, it's highly likely 98 just got lucky - though of course I can't totally rule out JT, AJ, or maybe even J7.
Heck I might even still be ahead of QJ. Rule nothing entirely out on this one!
However, we are now looking at a monster pot, and given the high likelihood I'm losing to 98, it's still entirely justifiable to call the raise.
Assuming I'm losing to a straight, I've got three kings, one jack, three tens, and three sevens to hit on the river, with forty four cards unknown - if I'm correct in putting my opponent on 98 - so I'm approximately 7/2 to hit my card, in a pot that's laying me 14/1. That's an +EV call if ever I saw one.
The odds are so good they easily compensate for the rare occasions I'll be drawing much thinner against the likes of AJ or JT.
The river was a 3. He did have 98.
As it happens the other caller had T7, and he paid to see a showdown too - a true optimist!
Which meant my actual odds of hitting were 4/1, rather than 7/2. Still fantastic value.
Hitting one or two of those redraws is what turns a horrible night into a great night.
The challenge is to survive the horrible ones with my sanity intact, and enjoy the great ones. Which is why I'm writing this. Consider it not so much a blog post, as a DIY therapy session.
Posted by Div at 9:52 pm